Titre du document / Document title
Exploring the planning fallacy : why people underestimate their task completion times
Auteur(s) / Author(s)
BUEHLER R. (1) ;
GRIFFIN D. ;
ROSS M. ;
Affiliation(s) du ou des auteurs / Author(s) Affiliation(s)
(1) Simon Fraser univ., dep. psychology, Burnaby BC V5A 1S6, CANADA
Résumé / Abstract
This study tested 3 main hypotheses concerning people's predictions of task completion times: (a) People underestimate their own but not others' completion times, (b) people focus on plan-based scenarios rather than on relevant past experiences while generating their predictions, and (c) people's attributions diminish the relevance of past experiences. Results supported each hypothesis. Ss' predictions of their completion times were too optimistic for a variety of academic and nonacademic tasks. Think-aloud procedures revealed that Ss focused primarily on future scenarios when predicting their completion times. In Study 4, the optimistic bias was eliminated for Ss instructed to connect relevant past experiences with their predictions
Revue / Journal Title
Journal of personality and social psychology
ISSN
0022-3514
CODEN JPSPB2
Source / Source
1994, vol. 67, n
o3, pp. 366-381 (1 p.)
Langue / Language
Anglais
Editeur / Publisher
American Psychological Association, Washington, DC, ETATS-UNIS
(1965)
(Revue)
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Localisation / Location
INIST-CNRS, Cote INIST : 13817, 35400004154085.0020
Nº notice refdoc (ud4) : 4219026
