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Titre du document / Document title

Doomed to repeat the successes of the past: History is best forgotten for repeated choices with nonstationary payoffs

Auteur(s) / Author(s)

RAKOW Tim (1) ; MILER Katherine (1) ;

Affiliation(s) du ou des auteurs / Author(s) Affiliation(s)

(1) University of Essex, Colchester, ROYAUME-UNI

Résumé / Abstract

Many everyday tasks involve repeated choices in which past outcomes are used to estimate payoffs but in which present payoffs may differ from past ones. Two experiments with 10 decision problems employing the decisions-from-feedback paradigm examined the choice between two risky options, wherein the payoff probabilities for one option could change over a sequence of trials. Participants either saw the outcomes associated with each option, or additionally were given a "history" summarizing the outcomes of previous trials. Participants adapted quickly to new problems, but adapted slowly to payoff changes. Providing a history improved initial choices, but had a null or negative impact on later ones―although, appropriately, the summary received less weight in later trials. An associative choice model captured changes in preference, but not initial patterns of choice. The findings emphasize the adaptive value of forgetting in unstable decision environments, but illustrate how providing additional relevant information may hinder this.

Revue / Journal Title

Memory & cognition    ISSN  0090-502X   CODEN MYCGAO 

Source / Source

2009, vol. 37, no7, pp. 985-1000 [16 page(s) (article)] (1 p.1/4)

Langue / Language

Anglais

Editeur / Publisher

Springer, New York, NY, ETATS-UNIS  (1973) (Revue)

Mots-clés anglais / English Keywords

Human

;

Risk taking

;

Antecedent

;

Experimental study

;

Choice

;

Repetition

;

Decision making

;

Mots-clés français / French Keywords

Homme

;

Prise risque

;

Antécédent

;

Etude expérimentale

;

Choix

;

Répétition

;

Prise de décision

;

Mots-clés espagnols / Spanish Keywords

Hombre

;

Toma riesgo

;

Antecedente

;

Estudio experimental

;

Elección

;

Repetición

;

Toma decision

;

Localisation / Location

INIST-CNRS, Cote INIST : 13280 D, 35400017005035.0050

Nº notice refdoc (ud4) : 21997109



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