Titre du document / Document title

Petrochemicals from oil, natural gas, coal and biomass: Production costs in 2030-2050

Auteur(s) / Author(s)

TAO REN ⁽¹⁾ ; DANIELS Bert ⁽²⁾ ; PATEL Martin K. ⁽¹⁾ ; BLOK Kornelis ⁽¹⁾ ;

Affiliation(s) du ou des auteurs / Author(s) Affiliation(s)

⁽¹⁾ Department of Chemistry, Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, 3584 CS Utrecht, PAYS-BAS
⁽²⁾ Policy Studies. Energy Research Center of The Netherlands (ECN), Westerduinweg 3, 1755 ZG Petten, PAYS-BAS

Résumé / Abstract

Methane, coal and biomass are being considered as alternatives to crude oil for the production of basic petrochemicals, such as light olefins. This paper is a study on the production costs of 24 process routes utilizing these primary energy sources. A wide range of projected energy prices in 2030-2050 found in the open literature is used. The basis for comparison is the production cost per t of high value chemicals (HVCs or light olefin-value equivalent). A Monte Carlo method was used to estimate the ranking of production costs of all 24 routes with 10,000 trials of varying energy prices and CO₂ emissions costs (assumed to be within $0-100/t CO₂: the total CO₂ emissions, or cradle-to-grave CO₂ emissions, were considered). High energy prices in the first three quarter of 2008 were tested separately. The main findings are: • Production costs: while the production costs of crude oil- and natural gas-based routes are within $500-900/t HVCs, those of coal- and biomass-based routes are mostly within $400-800/t HVCs. Production costs of coal- and biomass-based routes are in general quite similar while in some cases the difference is significant. Among the top seven most expensive routes, six are oil- and gas-based routes. Among the top seven least expensive routes, six are coal and biomass routes. • CO₂ emissions costs: the effect of CO₂ emissions costs was found to be strong on the coal-based routes and also quite significant on the biomass-based routes. However, the effect on oil- and gas-based routes is found to be small or relatively moderate. • Energy prices in 2008: most of the coal-based routes and biomass-based routes (particularly sugar cane) still have much lower production costs than the oil- and gas-based routes (even if international freight costs are included). To ensure the reduction of CO₂ emissions in the long-term, we suggest that policies for the petrochemicals industry focus on stimulating the use of biomass as well as carbon capture and storage features for coal-based routes.

Revue / Journal Title

Resources, conservation and recycling    ISSN  0921-3449 

Source / Source

2009, vol. 53, n^o12, pp. 653-663 [11 page(s) (article)] (3/4 p.)

Langue / Language

Anglais

Editeur / Publisher

Elsevier, Kidlington, ROYAUME-UNI  (1988) (Revue)

Mots-clés anglais / English Keywords

Air pollution

;

Storage

;

Long term

;

Pollutant emission

;

Carbon dioxide

;

Rank statistic

;

Monte Carlo method

;

Crude oil

;

Methane

;

Production

;

Biomass

;

Coal

;

Natural gas

;

Petrochemical industry

;

Mots-clés français / French Keywords

Pollution air

;

Stockage

;

Long terme

;

Emission polluant

;

Dioxyde de carbone

;

Statistique rang

;

Méthode Monte Carlo

;

Pétrole brut

;

Méthane

;

Production

;

Biomasse

;

Charbon

;

Gaz naturel

;

Industrie pétrochimique

;

Mots-clés espagnols / Spanish Keywords

Contaminación aire

;

Almacenamiento

;

Largo plazo

;

Emisión contaminante

;

Carbono dióxido

;

Estadística rango

;

Método Monte Carlo

;

Petróleo bruto

;

Metano

;

Producción

;

Biomasa

;

Carbón

;

Gas natural

;

Industria petroquímica

;

Mots-clés d'auteur / Author Keywords

Coal

;

Biomass

;

Methane

;

Petrochemicals

;

Production costs

;

Localisation / Location

INIST-CNRS, Cote INIST : 16839, 35400017026999.0010