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Titre du document / Document title

Temperature scenarios for Norway : from regional to local scale

Auteur(s) / Author(s)

ENGEN-SKAUGEN Torill (1) ; HAUGEN Jan Erik (1) ; TVEITO Ole Einar (1) ;

Affiliation(s) du ou des auteurs / Author(s) Affiliation(s)

(1) Norwegian Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 43, Blindem, 0313 Oslo, NORVEGE

Résumé / Abstract

Scenarios with daily time resolution are frequently used in research on the impacts of climate change. These are traditionally developed by regional climate models (RCMs). The spatial resolution, however, is usually too coarse for local climate change analysis, especially in regions with complex topography, such as Norway. The RCM used, HIRHAM, is run with lateral boundary forcing provided from two global medium resolution models; the ECHAM4/OPYC3 from MPI and the HadAM3H from the Hadley centre. The first is run with IPCC SRES emission scenario B2, the latter is run with IPCC SRES emission scenarios A2 and B2. All three scenarios represent the future time period 2071-2100. Both models have a control run, representing the present climate (1961-1990). Daily temperature scenarios are interpolated from HIRHAM to Norwegian temperature stations. The at-site HIRHAM-temperatures, both for the control and scenario runs, are adjusted to be locally representative. Mean monthly values and standard deviations based on daily values of the adjusted HIRHAM-temperatures, as well as the cumulative distribution curve of daily seasonal temperatures, are conclusive with observations for the control period. Residual kriging are used on the adjusted daily HIRHAM-temperatures to obtain high spatial temperature scenarios. Mean seasonal temperature grids are obtained. By adjusting the control runs and scenarios and improving the spatial resolution of the scenarios, the absolute temperature values are representative at a local scale. The scenarios indicate larger warming in winter than in summer in the Scandinavian regions. A marked west-east and south-north gradient is projected for Norway, where the largest increase is in eastern and northern regions. The temperature of the coldest winter days is projected to increase more than the warmer temperatures.

Revue / Journal Title

Climate dynamics    ISSN  0930-7575   CODEN CLDYEM 

Source / Source

2007, vol. 29, no5, pp. 441-453 [13 page(s) (article)] (3/4 p.)

Langue / Language

Anglais

Editeur / Publisher

Springer, Heidelberg, ALLEMAGNE  (1986) (Revue)

Mots-clés anglais / English Keywords

Europe

;

Scandinavia

;

Dynamical climatology

;

Norway

;

trend-surface analysis

;

cartography

;

spatial variations

;

seasonal variations

;

Atmospheric temperature

;

Century 21st

;

Forecast model

;

Scale reduction

;

Ocean-atmosphere model

;

General circulation models

;

digital simulation

;

Local scope

;

troposphere

;

warming

;

climate modification

;

global change

;

Mots-clés français / French Keywords

Europe

;

Scandinavie

;

Climatologie dynamique

;

Norvège

;

Analyse tendance

;

Cartographie

;

Variation spatiale

;

Variation saisonnière

;

Température atmosphérique

;

Siècle 21eme

;

Modèle prévision

;

Réduction échelle

;

Modèle atmosphère océan

;

Modèle circulation générale

;

Simulation numérique

;

Echelon local

;

Troposphère

;

Réchauffement

;

Modification climat

;

Changement planétaire

;

Mots-clés espagnols / Spanish Keywords

Europa

;

Climatología dinámica

;

Noruega

;

Análisis tendencia

;

Cartografía

;

Variación espacial

;

Variación estacional

;

Temperatura atmosférica

;

Siglo 21

;

Modelo previsión

;

Reducción escala

;

Simulación numérica

;

Escala local

;

Cambio planetario

;

Localisation / Location

INIST-CNRS, Cote INIST : 21148, 35400014968706.0010

Nº notice refdoc (ud4) : 19024892



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