Titre du document / Document title

Bayesian priors based on regional information : application to regional flood frequency analysis

Auteur(s) / Author(s)

RIBATET Mathieu ^{(1 2)} ; SAUQUET Eric ⁽²⁾ ; GRESILLON Jean-Michel ⁽²⁾ ; OUARDA Taha B. M. J. ⁽¹⁾ ;

Affiliation(s) du ou des auteurs / Author(s) Affiliation(s)

⁽¹⁾ INRS-ETE, University of Quebec, 490 de la Couronne, Quebec G1K 9A9, CANADA
⁽²⁾ 3 bis quai Chauveau CP 220, 69336 Lyon, FRANCE

Résumé / Abstract

Flood frequency analysis is usually based on the fitting of an extreme value distribution to the series of local streamflow. However, when the at-site time series is short, frequency analysis results become unreliable. In this work, a regional Bayesian model to estimate flood quantile from a few years of stream flow data is proposed. This model is less restrictive than the Index Flood model while preserving the formalism of homogeneous regions. Performance of the proposed model is assessed on a set of French gauging stations. The accuracy of quantile estimates as a function of homogeneity level of the pooling group is also analysed. Results indicate that the regional Bayesian model outperforms the Index Flood model and local estimators. Furthermore, it seems that working with relatively large and homogeneous regions may lead to more accurate results than working with smaller and highly homogeneous regions.

Revue / Journal Title

IAHS-AISH publication   ISSN 0144-7815   CODEN IAPUEP 

Source / Source

Congrès
Climate variability and change :   ( hydrological impacts )
Flow Regimes from International Experimental and Network Data N^o5, La Havane , CUBA (2006)
2006  , n^o 308, pp. 226-231[Note(s) : III-707 p., ] [Document : 6 p.] (1/4 p.) ISBN 978-1-901502-78-7 ;  Illustration : Carte ; Graphique ;

Langue / Language

Anglais
Revue : Anglais

Editeur / Publisher

International Association of Hydrological Sciences, Wallingford, ROYAUME-UNI  (1973) (Revue)
International association of hydrological sciences press, Wallingford, ROYAUME-UNI  (2006) (Monographie)

Mots-clés anglais / English Keywords

bayesian analysis ; homogeneity ; accuracy ; gauging ; streams ; models ; river discharge ; extreme value ; frequency ; floods ;

Mots-clés français / French Keywords

Estimation ; Performance ; Analyse bayésienne ; Homogénéité ; Précision ; Jaugeage ; Cours eau ; Modèle ; Débit rivière ; Valeur extrême ; Fréquence ; Crue ;

Mots-clés espagnols / Spanish Keywords

Homogeneidad ; Precisión ; Aforo ; Curso agua ; Modelo ; Caudal río ; Frecuencia ; Crecida ;

Localisation / Location

INIST-CNRS, Cote INIST : 8967, 35400015355168.0380