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Titre du document / Document title

Climate stability : an inconvenient proof

Auteur(s) / Author(s)

BARRETT Jack (1) ; SELLAMY David (2) ;

Affiliation(s) du ou des auteurs / Author(s) Affiliation(s)

(1) Scientific Alliance in Cambridge, ROYAUME-UNI
(2) Conservation Foundation in London, ROYAUME-UNI

Résumé / Abstract

This paper demonstrates that the widely prophesied doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels from natural, pre-industrial values will enhance the so-called greenhouse effect' but will amount to less than 1°C of global warming. It also points out that such a scenario is unlikely to arise given our limited reserves of fossil fuels certainly not before the end of this century Furthermore, the paper argues that general circulation models are as yet insufficiently accurate for civil engineers to rely on their predictions in any forward-planning decision- the omission of solar wind effects being a potentially significant shortcoming. It concludes that the only certainty is that the world fossil fuel resources are finite and should be used prudently and with proper respect to the environment.

Revue / Journal Title

Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers. Civil engineering    ISSN  0965-089X 

Source / Source

2007, vol. 160, no2, pp. 66-72 [7 page(s) (article)] (18 ref.)

Langue / Language

Anglais

Editeur / Publisher

Telford, London, ROYAUME-UNI  (1992) (Revue)

Mots-clés anglais / English Keywords

Solar activity

;

Concentration

;

Carbon dioxide

;

Civil engineering

;

Forecast model

;

Mathematical model

;

Fossil fuel

;

Greenhouse gas

;

Pollutant emission

;

Stability

;

Global warming potential

;

Trend analysis

;

Climatology

;

Mots-clés français / French Keywords

Activité solaire

;

Concentration

;

Carbone dioxyde

;

Génie civil

;

Modèle prévision

;

Modèle mathématique

;

Combustible fossile

;

Gaz effet serre

;

Emission polluant

;

Stabilité

;

Potentiel réchauffement global

;

Analyse tendance

;

Climatologie

;

Mots-clés espagnols / Spanish Keywords

Actividad solar

;

Concentración

;

Carbono dióxido

;

Ingeniería civil

;

Modelo previsión

;

Modelo matemático

;

Combustible fósil

;

Gas efecto invernadero

;

Emisión contaminante

;

Estabilidad

;

Potencial calefacción global

;

Análisis tendencia

;

Climatología

;

Localisation / Location

INIST-CNRS, Cote INIST : 6862 F, 35400014953807.0010

Nº notice refdoc (ud4) : 18715180



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