RefDoc
Haut

Faire une nouvelle recherche
Make a new search
Lancer la recherche


Titre du document / Document title

Assessing the decline of brown trout (Salmo trutta) in Swiss rivers using a Bayesian probability network

Auteur(s) / Author(s)

BORSUK Mark E. (1) ; REICHERT Peter (1 2) ; PETER Armin (3) ; SCHAGER Eva (3) ; BURKHARDT-HOLM Patricia (4) ;

Affiliation(s) du ou des auteurs / Author(s) Affiliation(s)

(1) Department of Systems Analysis, Integrated Assessment, and Modelling, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology (Eawag), P.O. Box 611, 8600 Dübendorf, SUISSE
(2) Department of Environmental Sciences, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH), Zürich, SUISSE
(3) Department of Applied Aquatic Ecology, Eawag, Dübendorf, SUISSE
(4) Program for Humans, Society, and the Environment, University of Basel, Basel, SUISSE

Résumé / Abstract

A Bayesian probability network has been developed to integrate the various scientific findings of an interdisciplinary research project on brown trout and their habitat in Switzerland. The network is based on a dynamic, age-structured population model, which is extended to include the effect of natural and anthropogenic influence factors. These include gravel bed conditions, water quality, disease rates, water temperature, habitat conditions, stocking practices, angler catch and flood frequency. Effect strength and associated uncertainty are described by conditional probability distributions. These conditional probabilities were developed using experimental and field data, literature reports, and the elicited judgment of involved scientists. The model was applied to brown trout populations at 12 locations in four river basins. Model testing consisted of comparing predictions of juvenile and adult density under current conditions to the results of recent population surveys. The relative importance of the various influence factors was then assessed by comparing various model scenarios, including a hypothetical reference condition. A measure of causal strength was developed based on this comparison, and the major stress factors were analyzed according to this measure for each location. We found that suboptimal habitat conditions are the most important and ubiquitous stress factor and have impacts of sufficient magnitude to explain the reduced fish populations observed in recent years. However, other factors likely contribute to the declines, depending on local conditions. The model developed in this study can be used to provide these site-specific assessments and predict the effect of candidate management measures.

Revue / Journal Title

Ecological modelling    ISSN  0304-3800   CODEN ECMODT 

Source / Source

2006, vol. 192, no1-2, pp. 224-244 [21 page(s) (article)] (2 p.)

Langue / Language

Anglais

Editeur / Publisher

Elsevier, Amsterdam, PAYS-BAS  (1975) (Revue)

Mots-clés anglais / English Keywords

Vertebrata

;

Pisces

;

Salmo trutta

;

Freshwater environment

;

Models

;

Risk

;

Ecology

;

Anthropogenic factor

;

Viability

;

Modeling

;

Bayes network

;

Rivers

;

Mots-clés français / French Keywords

Vertebrata

;

Pisces

;

Salmo trutta

;

Milieu eau douce

;

Modèle

;

Risque

;

Ecologie

;

Facteur anthropique

;

Viabilité

;

Modélisation

;

Réseau Bayes

;

Rivière

;

Mots-clés espagnols / Spanish Keywords

Vertebrata

;

Pisces

;

Salmo trutta

;

Medio agua dulce

;

Modelo

;

Riesgo

;

Ecología

;

Factor antrópico

;

Viabilidad

;

Modelización

;

Red Bayes

;

Río

;

Mots-clés d'auteur / Author Keywords

Integrated modelling

;

Causal assessment

;

Population viability

;

Anthropogenic stressors

;

Ecological risk

;

Localisation / Location

INIST-CNRS, Cote INIST : 15732, 35400011515625.0140

Nº notice refdoc (ud4) : 17532171



Faire une nouvelle recherche
Make a new search
Lancer la recherche
Bas