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Titre du document / Document title

Cost contingency as the standard deviation of the cost estimate

Auteur(s) / Author(s)

ROTHWELL Geoffrey (1) ;

Affiliation(s) du ou des auteurs / Author(s) Affiliation(s)

(1) Department of Economics at Stanford University, ETATS-UNIS

Résumé / Abstract

Traditional cost contingency estimation relies heavily on expert judgment based on various cost-enginnering standards. This article compares project stages, accuracy ranges, and cost contingencies recommended by the Association for the Advancement of Cost Engineering International and tlie Electric Power Research Institute. It shows that current guidelines are consistent with contingencies equal to the standard deviation of the cost estimate. It suggests how this standard deviation can be derived from a confidence level (e.g., 80 percent) for a given accuracy (e.g., ±10 percent) for normal and lognormal probability distributions.

Revue / Journal Title

Cost engineering    ISSN  0274-9696 

Source / Source

2005, vol. 47, no7, pp. 22-25 [4 page(s) (article)] (8 ref.)

Langue / Language

Anglais

Editeur / Publisher

Association for the Advancement of Cost Engineering, Morgantown, WV, ETATS-UNIS  (1978) (Revue)

Mots-clés d'auteur / Author Keywords

Contingency

;

cost estimating

;

risk assessment

;

and project management

;

Localisation / Location

INIST-CNRS, Cote INIST : 27338, 35400013145884.0020

Nº notice refdoc (ud4) : 16983187



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