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Titre du document / Document title

Downscaling simulations of future global climate with application to hydrologic modelling

Auteur(s) / Author(s)

SALATHE Eric P. (1) ;

Affiliation(s) du ou des auteurs / Author(s) Affiliation(s)

(1) Center for Science in the Earth System. Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, ETATS-UNIS

Résumé / Abstract

This study approaches the problem of downscaling global climate model simulations with an emphasis on validating and selecting global models. The downscaling method makes minimal, physically based corrections to the global simulation while preserving much of the statistics of interannual variability in the climate model. Differences among the downscaled results for simulations of present-day climate form a basis for model evaluation. The downscaled results are used to simulate streamflow in the Yakima River, a mountainous basin in Washington, USA, to illustrate how model differences affect streamflow simulations. The downscaling is applied to the output of three models (ECHAM4, HADCM3, and NCAR-PCM) for simulations of historic conditions (1900-2000) and two future emissions scenarios (A2 and B2 for 2000-2100) from the IPCC assessment. The ECHAM4 simulation closely reproduces the observed statistics of temperature and precipitation for the 42 year period 1949-90. Streamflow computed from this climate simulation likewise produces similar statistics to streamflow computed from the observed data. Downscaled climate-change scenarios from these models are examined in light of the differences in the present-day simulations. Streamflows simulated from the ECHAM4 results show the greatest sensitivity to climate change, with the peak in summertime flow occurring 2 months earlier by the end of the 21st century.

Revue / Journal Title

International journal of climatology    ISSN  0899-8418 

Source / Source

2005, vol. 25, no4, pp. 419-436 [18 page(s) (article)] (25 ref.)

Langue / Language

Anglais

Editeur / Publisher

Wiley, Chichester, ROYAUME-UNI  (1989) (Revue)

Mots-clés anglais / English Keywords

America

;

North America

;

United States

;

Washington

;

Century 21st

;

Century 20th

;

Atmospheric precipitation

;

Atmospheric temperature

;

Streamflow

;

River basins

;

Hydrology

;

Observation data

;

Scale reduction

;

Local scope

;

Forecast model

;

Numerical simulation

;

Global change

;

Climate modification

;

Climate models

;

Dynamical climatology

;

Mots-clés français / French Keywords

Amérique

;

Amérique du Nord

;

Etats Unis

;

Washington

;

Siècle 21eme

;

Siècle 20eme

;

Précipitation atmosphérique

;

Température atmosphérique

;

Ecoulement cours eau

;

Bassin fluvial

;

Hydrologie

;

Donnée observation

;

Réduction échelle

;

Echelon local

;

Modèle prévision

;

Simulation numérique

;

Changement global

;

Modification climat

;

Modèle climat

;

Climatologie dynamique

;

Mots-clés espagnols / Spanish Keywords

America

;

America del norte

;

Estados Unidos

;

Washingtón

;

Siglo 21

;

Siglo 20

;

Precipitación atmosférica

;

Temperatura atmosférica

;

Flujo curso agua

;

Cuenca fluvial

;

Hidrología

;

Dato observación

;

Reducción escala

;

Escala local

;

Modelo previsión

;

Simulación numérica

;

Cambio global

;

Modificación clima

;

Climatología dinámica

;

Mots-clés d'auteur / Author Keywords

Pacific Northwest

;

statistical downscaling

;

hydrology

;

hydrologic modelling

;

precipitation

;

streamflow

;

climate change

;

Localisation / Location

INIST-CNRS, Cote INIST : 19299, 35400012523693.0010

Nº notice refdoc (ud4) : 16653268



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