RefDoc
Haut

Faire une nouvelle recherche
Make a new search
Lancer la recherche


Titre du document / Document title

Age at first marriage in Malawi: a Bayesian multilevel analysis using a discrete time-to-event model

Auteur(s) / Author(s)

MANDA Samuel (1) ; MEYER Renate (2) ;

Affiliation(s) du ou des auteurs / Author(s) Affiliation(s)

(1) University of Leeds, ROYAUME-UNI
(2) University of Auckland, NOUVELLE-ZELANDE

Résumé / Abstract

The paper presents a hierarchical discrete time survival model for the analysis of the 2000 Malawi Demographic and Health Survey data to assess the determinants of transition to marriage among women in Malawi. The model explicitly accounts for the unobserved heterogeneity by using family and community random effects with cross-level correlation structure. A nonparametric technique is used to model the base-line discrete hazard dynamically. Parameters of the model are computed by using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. The results show that rising age at marriage is a combination of birth cohort and education effects, depends considerably on the family and to some extent on the community in which a woman resides and the correlation between family and community random effects is negative. These results confirm a downward trend in teenage marriage and that raising women's education levels in sub-Saharan Africa has the beneficial effect of increasing age at marriage, and by implication reducing total fertility rates. The negative correlation between family and community random effects has policy implications in that targeting communities with an intervention to increase age at first marriage may not necessarily yield reduced fertility levels in individual families. A campaign that is geared towards individual families would achieve the desired goals. Overall, the findings point to the need for the Government in Malawi to enact public policies which are geared at vastly improving women's education at higher levels. The variation in marriage rates over families poses problems in delivering the policy, since particular policies must be devised for specific groups of families to accomplish the required social and health objectives.

Revue / Journal Title

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A. Statistics in society    ISSN  0964-1998 

Source / Source

2005, vol. 168 (2), pp. 439-455 [17 page(s) (article)] (34 ref.)

Langue / Language

Anglais

Editeur / Publisher

Blackwell, Oxford, ROYAUME-UNI  (1988) (Revue)

Mots-clés anglais / English Keywords

Human

;

Survival model

;

Multilevel analysis

;

Statistical method

;

Gibbs sampling

;

Higher education

;

Africa

;

Trend analysis

;

Monte Carlo method

;

Markov chain

;

Non parametric estimation

;

Correlation analysis

;

Cross correlation

;

Random effect

;

Heterogeneity

;

Woman

;

Data analysis

;

Sample survey

;

Survival function

;

Survival time

;

Discrete time

;

Bayes estimation

;

Mots-clés français / French Keywords

Homme

;

Modèle survie

;

Analyse multiniveau

;

65C05

;

62E17

;

65C40

;

60J10

;

62H20

;

62P10

;

62N02

;

62N99

;

62Nxx

;

Méthode statistique

;

Echantillonnage Gibbs

;

Enseignement supérieur

;

Afrique

;

Analyse tendance

;

Méthode Monte Carlo

;

Chaîne Markov

;

Estimation non paramétrique

;

Analyse corrélation

;

Corrélation croisée

;

Effet aléatoire

;

Hétérogénéité

;

Femme

;

Analyse donnée

;

Sondage statistique

;

Fonction survie

;

Temps survie

;

Temps discret

;

Estimation Bayes

;

Mots-clés espagnols / Spanish Keywords

Hombre

;

Método estadístico

;

Muestreo Gibbs

;

Enseñanza superior

;

Africa

;

Análisis tendencia

;

Método Monte Carlo

;

Cadena Markov

;

Estimación no paramétrica

;

Análisis correlación

;

Correlación cruzada

;

Efecto aleatorio

;

Heterogeneidad

;

Mujer

;

Análisis datos

;

Ecuesta estadística

;

Función sobrevivencia

;

Tiempo discreto

;

Estimación Bayes

;

Mots-clés d'auteur / Author Keywords

Adolescent marriage and fertility

;

Gibbs sampling

;

Sub-Saharan Africa

;

Localisation / Location

INIST-CNRS, Cote INIST : 2097 A, 35400012597192.0090

Nº notice refdoc (ud4) : 16646780



Faire une nouvelle recherche
Make a new search
Lancer la recherche
Bas