Titre du document / Document title

Assessment of the status of measles elimination from reported outbreaks: United States, 1997-1999

Auteur(s) / Author(s)

GAY Nigel J. ⁽¹⁾ ; DE SERRES Gaston ⁽²⁾ ; FARRINGTON C. Paddy ⁽³⁾ ; REDD Susan B. ⁽⁴⁾ ; PAPANIA Mark J. ⁽⁴⁾ ;

Affiliation(s) du ou des auteurs / Author(s) Affiliation(s)

⁽¹⁾ Health Protection Agency, Modelling and Economics Unit, Communicable Disease Surveillance Centre, London, ROYAUME-UNI
⁽²⁾ Institut National de Santé Publique du Québec and Public Health Research Unit, Centre Hospitalier de l'Université Laval Research Center, Laval University, Quebec, CANADA
⁽³⁾ Department of Statistics, Open University, Milton Keynes, ROYAUME-UNI
⁽⁴⁾ Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, ETATS-UNIS

Résumé / Abstract

The status of measles elimination is best summarized by evaluation of the effective reproduction number R; maintaining R < 1 is necessary and sufficient to achieve elimination. Previously described methods for estimating R from the sizes and durations of chains of measles transmission and the proportion of cases imported were applied to the measles data reported for the United States in 1997-1999. These comprised 338 cases, forming 165 chains of transmission, of which 43 had >1 case. One hundred seven cases were classified as importations. All 3 methods suggested that R was in the range 0.6-0.7. Results were not sensitive to the minimum size and duration of outbreak considered (so long as single-case chains were excluded) or to exclusion of chains without a known imported source. These results demonstrate that susceptibility to measles was beneath the epidemic threshold and that endemic transmission was eliminated.

Revue / Journal Title

The Journal of infectious diseases    ISSN  0022-1899   CODEN JIDIAQ 

Source / Source

2004, vol. 189, SUP1 (262 p.)  (11 ref.), pp. S36-S42

Langue / Language

Anglais

Editeur / Publisher

Oxford University Press, Oxford, ROYAUME-UNI  (1904) (Revue)

Mots-clés anglais / English Keywords

Viral disease

;

America

;

North America

;

Measles

;

Infection

;

Microbiology

;

United States

;

Mots-clés français / French Keywords

Virose

;

Amérique

;

Amérique du Nord

;

Rougeole

;

Infection

;

Microbiologie

;

Etats Unis

;

Mots-clés espagnols / Spanish Keywords

Virosis

;

America

;

America del norte

;

Sarampión

;

Infección

;

Microbiología

;

Estados Unidos

;

Localisation / Location

INIST-CNRS, Cote INIST : 2052, 35400011202877.0050