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Titre du document / Document title

Assessment of the status of measles elimination from reported outbreaks: United States, 1997-1999

Auteur(s) / Author(s)

GAY Nigel J. (1) ; DE SERRES Gaston (2) ; FARRINGTON C. Paddy (3) ; REDD Susan B. (4) ; PAPANIA Mark J. (4) ;

Affiliation(s) du ou des auteurs / Author(s) Affiliation(s)

(1) Health Protection Agency, Modelling and Economics Unit, Communicable Disease Surveillance Centre, London, ROYAUME-UNI
(2) Institut National de Santé Publique du Québec and Public Health Research Unit, Centre Hospitalier de l'Université Laval Research Center, Laval University, Quebec, CANADA
(3) Department of Statistics, Open University, Milton Keynes, ROYAUME-UNI
(4) Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, ETATS-UNIS

Résumé / Abstract

The status of measles elimination is best summarized by evaluation of the effective reproduction number R; maintaining R < 1 is necessary and sufficient to achieve elimination. Previously described methods for estimating R from the sizes and durations of chains of measles transmission and the proportion of cases imported were applied to the measles data reported for the United States in 1997-1999. These comprised 338 cases, forming 165 chains of transmission, of which 43 had >1 case. One hundred seven cases were classified as importations. All 3 methods suggested that R was in the range 0.6-0.7. Results were not sensitive to the minimum size and duration of outbreak considered (so long as single-case chains were excluded) or to exclusion of chains without a known imported source. These results demonstrate that susceptibility to measles was beneath the epidemic threshold and that endemic transmission was eliminated.

Revue / Journal Title

The Journal of infectious diseases    ISSN  0022-1899   CODEN JIDIAQ 

Source / Source

2004, vol. 189, SUP1 (262 p.)  (11 ref.), pp. S36-S42

Langue / Language

Anglais

Editeur / Publisher

Oxford University Press, Oxford, ROYAUME-UNI  (1904) (Revue)

Mots-clés anglais / English Keywords

Viral disease

;

America

;

North America

;

Measles

;

Infection

;

Microbiology

;

United States

;

Mots-clés français / French Keywords

Virose

;

Amérique

;

Amérique du Nord

;

Rougeole

;

Infection

;

Microbiologie

;

Etats Unis

;

Mots-clés espagnols / Spanish Keywords

Virosis

;

America

;

America del norte

;

Sarampión

;

Infección

;

Microbiología

;

Estados Unidos

;

Localisation / Location

INIST-CNRS, Cote INIST : 2052, 35400011202877.0050

Nº notice refdoc (ud4) : 15837353



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