Titre du document / Document title

Century-scale change in water availability: CO₂-quadrupling experiment

Auteur(s) / Author(s)

MANABE S. ⁽¹⁾ ; WETHERALD R. T. ⁽²⁾ ; MILLY P. C. D. ⁽³⁾ ; DELWORTH T. L. ⁽²⁾ ; STOUFFER R. J. ⁽²⁾ ;

Affiliation(s) du ou des auteurs / Author(s) Affiliation(s)

⁽¹⁾ Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, P.O. Box CN710, Sayre Hall, Forrestal Campus, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544-0710, ETATS-UNIS
⁽²⁾ Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/VOAA, P.O. Box 308, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08542, ETATS-UNIS
⁽³⁾ U.S. Geological Survey, GFDL/NOAA, P.O. Box 308, Princeton, NJ 08542, ETATS-UNIS

Résumé / Abstract

It has been suggested that, unless a major effort is made, the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide may rise above four times the pre-industrial level in a few centuries. Here we use a coupled atmosphere-ocean-land model to explore the response of the global water cycle to such a large increase in carbon dioxide, focusing on river discharge and soil moisture. Our results suggest that water is going to be more plentiful in those regions of the world that are already 'water-rich'. However, water stresses will increase significantly in regions and seasons that are already relatively dry. This could pose a very challenging problem for water-resource management around the world. For soil moisture, our results indicate reductions during much of the year in many semi-arid regions of the world, such as the southwestern region of North America, the northeastern region of China, the Mediterranean coast of Europe, and the grasslands of Australia and Africa. In some of these regions, soil moisture values are reduced by almost a factor of two during the dry season. The drying in semi-arid regions is likely to induce the outward expansion of deserts to the surrounding regions. Over extensive regions of both the Eurasian and North American continents in high and middle latitudes, soil moisture decreases in summer but increases in winter, in contrast to the situation in semi-arid regions. For river discharge, our results indicate an average increase of ∼15% during the next few centuries. The discharges from Arctic rivers such as the Mackenzie and Ob' increase by much larger fractions. In the tropics, the discharges from the Amazonas and Ganga-Brahmaputra also increase considerably. However, the percentage changes in runoff from other tropical and many mid-latitude rivers are smaller.

Revue / Journal Title

Climatic change   ISSN 0165-0009   CODEN CLCHDX 

Source / Source

2004, vol. 64, n^o1-2, pp. 59-76 [18 page(s) (article)] (24 ref.)

Langue / Language

Anglais

Editeur / Publisher

Springer, Dordrecht, PAYS-BAS  (1977) (Revue)

Mots-clés anglais / English Keywords

polar regions ; Australasia ; Asia ; Far East ; Runoff ; rivers ; Arctic region ; Winter ; Summer ; Mid latitude ; High latitude ; deserts ; Dry season ; Africa ; Australia ; grasslands ; Europe ; China ; North America ; Arid region ; water resources ; Water stress ; soil moisture ; Stream discharge ; hydrologic cycle ; Ocean model ; ocean-atmosphere interaction ; Carbon dioxide ;

Mots-clés français / French Keywords

Région Polaire ; Australasie ; Asie ; Extrême Orient ; Ruissellement eau sol ; Rivière ; Arctique ; Hiver ; Eté ; Moyenne latitude ; Haute latitude ; Désert ; Saison sèche ; Afrique ; Australie ; Prairie ; Europe ; Chine ; Amérique du Nord ; Zone aride ; Ressource eau ; Stress hydrique ; Humidité sol ; Rejet cours eau ; Cycle eau ; Modèle océan ; Interaction atmosphère océan ; Carbone dioxyde ;

Mots-clés espagnols / Spanish Keywords

Australasia ; Asia ; Extremo Oriente ; Escorrentía suelo ; Río ; Ártico ; Invierno ; Verano ; Latitud media ; Alta latitud ; Desierto ; Estación seca ; Africa ; Australia ; Pradera ; Europa ; China ; America del norte ; Zona árida ; Recurso agua ; Estrés hídrico ; Humedad suelo ; Desagüe corriente agua ; Ciclo agua ; Modelo oceánico ; Carbono dióxido ;

Localisation / Location

INIST-CNRS, Cote INIST : 17218, 35400011452621.0050