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Titre du document / Document title

Mögliche Klimatrends in Österreich in der ersten Hälfte des 21. Jahrhunderts = Possible climate trends in Austria in the first half of the 21st century

Auteur(s) / Author(s)

MATULLA C. (1 2) ; FORMAYER H. ; HAAS P. ; KROMP-KOLB H. ;

Affiliation(s) du ou des auteurs / Author(s) Affiliation(s)

(1) Institut für Meteorologie und Physik der Universität für Bodenkultur Wien, Türkenschanzstrasse 18, 1180 Wien, AUTRICHE
(2) Institut für Küstenforschung, GKSS Forschungszentrum, Max-Planck-Strasse, 21502 Geesthacht, AUTRICHE

Résumé / Abstract

This paper presents local-scale climate change scenarios for temperature and precipitation at about thirty stations in Austria, based on IPCC IS92a emission scenarios whose effects on the climate system were calculated by use of the ECHAM4/OPYC3 global circulation model (GCM). The global temperature increase resulting from the IS92a scenarios lies in the middle of the SRES (Second Report Emission Scenarios). GCMs are capable of reproducing the large-scale behaviour of climatic parameters, but cannot simulate satisfactorily local-scale effects. In order to obtain climate data at the local scale it is necessary to use some kind of downscaling, i. e. to cascade down information from larger scales to smaller scales. This study applies statistical downscallng, which is based on empirically derived relationships between the GCM scale and the local scale of the stations. We use monthly NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data at the GCM scale and station data provided by the Austrian weather service at the local scale. The period under study spans the second half of the 20th century. These data sets are analyzed by use of Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) and brought into relation using the Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA). CCA is used to establish transfer functions between the scales. Midlatitude weather depends on the seasons. Hence, downscallng is performed for each season separately Moreover, we distinguish between different climatic provinces in Austria. After assessing their performance in validation experiments, the transfer functions are used to determine best performing large-scale predictor combinations. These predictors are extracedfrom IS92a scenarios (realized by use of the ECHAM4/OPYC3 GCM) for the first half of the zest century and then projected onto the local scale via the transfer functions. This study has yielded monthly local-scale scenarios which have been tested for meteological plausibility.

Revue / Journal Title

Österreichische Wasser- und Abfallwirtschaft    ISSN  0945-358X 

Source / Source

2004, vol. 56, no1-2, pp. 1-9 [9 page(s) (article)] (23 ref.)

Langue / Language

Allemand

Editeur / Publisher

Springer, Wien, AUTRICHE  (1994) (Revue)

Mots-clés anglais / English Keywords

Europe

;

General circulation models

;

Canonical correlation

;

Empirical orthogonal function

;

Local scope

;

Century 21st

;

Numerical forecast

;

Weather forecast

;

Atmospheric temperature

;

Atmospheric precipitation

;

Forecast model

;

Numerical simulation

;

Warming

;

Global change

;

Climate modification

;

Climatology

;

Project

;

Transfer function

;

Correlation

;

Cascade

;

Models

;

circulation

;

World

;

Precipitation

;

Temperature

;

Climate

;

Austria

;

Mots-clés français / French Keywords

Europe

;

Modèle circulation générale

;

Corrélation canonique

;

Fonction orthogonale empirique

;

Echelon local

;

Siècle 21eme

;

Prévision numérique

;

Prévision météorologique

;

Température atmosphérique

;

Précipitation atmosphérique

;

Modèle prévision

;

Simulation numérique

;

Réchauffement

;

Changement global

;

Modification climat

;

Climatologie

;

Projet

;

Fonction transfert

;

Corrélation

;

Cascade

;

Modèle

;

Circulation

;

Monde

;

Précipitation

;

Température

;

Climat

;

Autriche

;

Mots-clés espagnols / Spanish Keywords

Europa

;

Correlación canónica

;

Función ortogonal empírica

;

Escala local

;

Siglo 21

;

Previsión numérica

;

Previsión meteorológica

;

Temperatura atmosférica

;

Precipitación atmosférica

;

Modelo previsión

;

Simulación numérica

;

Calefacción

;

Cambio global

;

Modificación clima

;

Climatología

;

Proyecto

;

Función traspaso

;

Correlación

;

Cascada

;

Modelo

;

Mundo

;

Precipitación

;

Temperatura

;

Clima

;

Austria

;

Localisation / Location

INIST-CNRS, Cote INIST : 8244, 35400011501732.0010

Nº notice refdoc (ud4) : 15494772



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