Titre du document / Document title

A half century of long-range energy forecasts: Errors made, lessons learned, and implications for forecasting

Auteur(s) / Author(s)

BEZDEK Roger H. ⁽¹⁾ ; WENDLING Robert M. ⁽¹⁾ ;

Affiliation(s) du ou des auteurs / Author(s) Affiliation(s)

⁽¹⁾ Management Information Services, Inc., Washington, D.C, ETATS-UNIS

Résumé / Abstract

This paper assesses the major U.S. long-range energy forecasting studies conducted over the past half century, identifies the errors made and lessons learned in energy forecasting, and discusses the implications for current and future attempts to accurately forecast energy consumption, production, and prices. Over the past several decades, long-range energy forecasting has been extremely difficult and the accuracy of the major forecasts has, in retrospect, often been found wanting. Although, in hindsight, a large portion of the forecasts and associated policy recommendations turned out to be inaccurate and mistaken, here we conduct a careful review of 50 years of energy forecasting to determine how some of the major pitfalls can be avoided in future efforts. We identify: (1) lessons that can be learned from these past forecasting exercises that may improve our track record in the future; (2) basic trends and truisms that may be discerned that may allow us to more accurately forecast energy technologies and variables; (3) insights for doing the job better in the future; (4) the most egregious forecasting errors made in the past that can help us avoid making similar errors in the future; (5) assumptions that may aid us in better predicting the long-run energy future; and (6) how this review can assist policymakers in formulating energy policies and technology and R&D priorities for the future.

Revue / Journal Title

Journal of fusion energy    ISSN  0164-0313   CODEN JFENDS 

Source / Source

2002, vol. 21, n^o3-4, pp. 155-172 [18 page(s) (article)] (1 p.1/4)

Langue / Language

Anglais

Editeur / Publisher

Springer, New York, NY, ETATS-UNIS  (1981) (Revue)

Mots-clés anglais / English Keywords

Nuclear fusion reactor

;

Nuclear energy

;

Energy policy

;

Research and development

;

Energy consumption

;

Mots-clés français / French Keywords

Réacteur fusion nucléaire

;

Energie nucléaire

;

Politique énergétique

;

Recherche développement

;

Consommation énergie

;

Mots-clés espagnols / Spanish Keywords

Reactor fusión nuclear

;

Energía nuclear

;

Política energética

;

Investigación desarrollo

;

Consumo energía

;

Localisation / Location

INIST-CNRS, Cote INIST : 18381, 35400011881878.0020