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Titre du document / Document title

Evaluating Risk in Construction-Schedule Model (ERIC-S): Construction schedule risk model

Auteur(s) / Author(s)

NASIR Daud (1) ; MCCABE Brenda (1) ; HARTONO Loesie (1) ;

Affiliation(s) du ou des auteurs / Author(s) Affiliation(s)

(1) Dept. of Civil Engineering, Univ. of Toronto, CANADA

Résumé / Abstract

Research was undertaken to develop a method to assist in the determination of the lower and upper activity duration values for schedule risk analysis by program evaluation and review technique analysis or Monte Carlo simulation. A belief network was the modeling environment used for this purpose, and the resulting model was named Evaluating Risk in Construction-Schedule Model. The development of the belief network model consisted of four steps. First, construction schedule risks were identified through a literature review, an expert review, and a group review by a team of experts. Second, cause effect relationships among these risks were identified through an expert survey. This led to the development of the structure of belief network model. Third, probabilities for various combinations of parents for each risk variable were obtained through an expert interview survey and incorporated into the model. Finally, sensitivity analysis was performed. The model was tested using 17 case studies with very good results.

Revue / Journal Title

Journal of construction engineering and management    ISSN  0733-9364   CODEN JCEMD4 

Source / Source

2003, vol. 129, no5, pp. 518-527 [10 page(s) (article)] (1 p.1/2)

Langue / Language

Anglais

Editeur / Publisher

American Society of Civil Engineers, Reston, VA, ETATS-UNIS  (1983) (Revue)

Mots-clés anglais / English Keywords

Verification

;

Implementation

;

Monte Carlo method

;

Work period

;

Activity

;

Scheduling

;

Numerical simulation

;

Value analysis

;

Risk analysis

;

Project evaluation

;

Construction industry

;

Mots-clés français / French Keywords

Vérification

;

Implémentation

;

Méthode Monte Carlo

;

Durée travail

;

Activité

;

Ordonnancement

;

Simulation numérique

;

Analyse valeur

;

Analyse risque

;

Evaluation projet

;

Industrie construction

;

Mots-clés espagnols / Spanish Keywords

Verificación

;

Ejecución

;

Método Monte Carlo

;

Duración trabajo

;

Actividad

;

Ordonamiento

;

Simulación numérica

;

Análisis valor

;

Análisis riesgo

;

Evaluación proyecto

;

Industria construcción

;

Mots-clés d'auteur / Author Keywords

Construction

;

Scheduling

;

Models

;

Risk analysis

;

Localisation / Location

INIST-CNRS, Cote INIST : 572 P, 35400011305183.0060

Nº notice refdoc (ud4) : 15138445



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