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Titre du document / Document title

Targeted observations to improve operational Tropical cyclone track forecast guidance

Auteur(s) / Author(s)

ABERSON Sim D. (1) ;

Affiliation(s) du ou des auteurs / Author(s) Affiliation(s)

(1) Hurricane Research Division, NOAA/AOML, Miami, Florida, ETATS-UNIS

Résumé / Abstract

Since 1997, the Tropical Prediction Center and the Hurricane Research Division have conducted operational synoptic surveillance missions with a Gulfstream IV-SP jet aircraft to improve numerical forecast guidance. Due to limited aircraft resources, optimal observing strategies for these missions must be developed. In the current study, the most rapidly growing modes are represented by areas of large forecast spread in the NCEP bredvector ensemble forecasting system. The sampling strategy requires sampling of the entire target region with regularly spaced dropwindsonde observations. Three dynamical models were employed in testing the targeting and sampling strategies. With the assimilation into the numerical guidance of all the observations gathered during the surveillance missions, only the 12-h Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Hurricane Model forecast showed statistically significant improvement. Assimilation of only the subset of data from the subjectively found fully sampled target regions produced a statistically significant reduction of the track forecast errors of up to 25% within the critical first 2 days of the forecast. This is comparable with the cumulative business-as-usual improvement expected over 18 yr.

Revue / Journal Title

Monthly weather review    ISSN  0027-0644   CODEN MWREAB 

Source / Source

2003, vol. 131 (1), no8, pp. 1613-1628 [16 page(s) (article)] (1 p.1/4)

Langue / Language

Anglais

Editeur / Publisher

American Meteorological Society, Boston, MA, ETATS-UNIS  (1872) (Revue)

Mots-clés anglais / English Keywords

Dropsonde

;

Forecast model

;

Weather forecast

;

Numerical forecast

;

Hurricane

;

Tropical cyclone

;

Mots-clés français / French Keywords

Radiosonde parachutée

;

Modèle prévision

;

Prévision météorologique

;

Prévision numérique

;

Ouragan

;

Cyclone tropical

;

Mots-clés espagnols / Spanish Keywords

Radiosonda con paracaídas

;

Modelo previsión

;

Previsión meteorológica

;

Previsión numérica

;

Huracán

;

Ciclón tropical

;

Localisation / Location

INIST-CNRS, Cote INIST : 141, 35400011262863.0080

Nº notice refdoc (ud4) : 15034289



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